Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 11.713958 13.141691 14.751164 16.715710 19.070688 21.831141 25.354173
2025-05-04 9.553061 11.276101 13.368689 16.145944 19.812473 24.605320 31.556461
2025-05-11 8.653059 10.583584 13.056270 16.548949 21.520361 28.628971 40.166370
2025-05-18 7.798668 9.783049 12.424262 16.332094 22.226908 31.287830 47.475372
2025-05-25 7.145058 9.149494 11.903059 16.139438 22.859721 33.883272 55.448752
2025-06-01 6.654788 8.676498 11.532438 16.083892 23.648176 36.852480 65.151740
2025-06-08 6.151057 8.131466 10.990261 15.674608 23.757574 38.615454 73.087345
2025-06-15 5.816549 7.798017 10.722345 15.654353 24.510138 41.731946 85.472612
2025-06-22 5.374581 7.270401 10.108395 14.985551 23.976717 42.143468 91.334094
2025-06-29 4.970011 6.771568 9.499469 14.259439 23.226719 41.934614 95.470677
2025-07-06 4.661891 6.399897 9.063532 13.787433 22.896908 42.580375 102.544300
2025-07-13 4.761259 6.658704 9.654904 15.189934 26.523089 53.403891 151.141742
2025-07-20 4.645599 6.580816 9.701027 15.634807 28.328209 60.651912 196.770345
2025-07-27 4.371376 6.232486 9.265053 15.118528 27.929290 61.818800 216.990091
2025-08-03 4.267717 6.153436 9.283335 15.485543 29.628079 69.770506 286.570400
2025-08-10 4.084606 5.931807 9.034308 15.288044 29.940121 73.573788 339.627190
2025-08-17 3.919868 5.731313 8.808179 15.112496 30.277493 77.650061 406.275744
2025-08-24 3.785843 5.574957 8.650190 15.061868 30.930494 83.199552 506.152944
2025-08-31 3.617347 5.351375 8.354908 14.688620 30.661623 85.192189 578.462338
2025-09-07 3.507966 5.223772 8.228679 14.670138 31.367506 91.508651 742.691461
2025-09-14 3.329321 4.968476 7.849593 14.059407 30.305134 89.899021 778.740941
2025-09-21 3.153987 4.712764 7.458430 13.395212 29.010971 86.918018 783.443259
2025-09-28 3.017513 4.520216 7.178376 12.962807 28.344474 86.651337 848.948476